This is a mean reversion strategy on ETH's 15 minute chart that buys oversold bounces only when price is above the 200 EMA, with a fixed stop below the recent swing low and a 2R take profit, risking 0.5% per trade.
3 months tested, 26% win rate, average -0.12R, max drawdown 4.7%. ETH, 1h candles. Past results do not guarantee future results.
The rules
Setup
Lane (first to light up)
crypto
Instrument(s)
ETH
Primary timeframe
15 minute
Slow EMA length
200
Trend rule (exact)
Price above 200 EMA
Momentum confirmation (optional)
RSI 14 crosses back above 30 after being oversold
Trigger
Pullback definition
RSI 14 crosses back above 30 after being oversold
Entry
Entry trigger
RSI 14 crosses back above 30
Stop
Initial stop
Below recent swing low
Exit
Profit target (optional)
2R
Risk
Risk per trade
0.5%
Strengths
Trend filter (above 200 EMA) avoids buying against a strong downtrend.
Clear entry trigger (RSI crossing back above 30) is objective and easy to automate.
Defined risk with stop below swing low and fixed 2R target gives a concrete risk/reward ratio.
Risks
Oversold bounces can fail quickly, especially in choppy or volatile conditions, hitting the stop before any recovery.
The 200 EMA on 15 minutes is a lagging indicator, so price may already be extended or the trend may be weakening.
A 2R target with a tight stop below a swing low can be hit by normal noise, leading to frequent small losses that require a high win rate to stay profitable.
Source
Typed into JustWavey.
Version history
Version
Saved
Changed boxes
2
2026-10-17
Primary timeframe, Fast EMA length, Slow EMA length, Pullback definition, Order type
1
2026-10-17
First version
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