Fading NQ upper Bollinger band

This strategy fades NQ 5-minute moves to the upper Bollinger Band when the 15-minute trend is flat, shorting on a close back inside the band, with a stop 1 ATR above the high and a target at the middle band, risking...

Market
Futures
Style
Mean reversion
Timeframe
Scalp 1m-5m (5m, 15m)
Level
Intermediate
Tools
Bollinger, ATR
Saved
1 time
Run
0 times

Tested

Testing needs market data for this symbol. Past results do not guarantee future results.

The rules

Setup

Lane (first to light up)futures
Instrument(s)NQ
Primary timeframe5 minute
Higher-timeframe filter (optional)15 minute trend flat
Trend rule (exact)15 minute trend is flat

Trigger

Pullback definitionPrice moves to upper Bollinger Band
Pullback invalidation (when the setup is dead)Price closes back inside the band

Entry

Entry triggerShort when price closes back inside the band

Stop

Initial stop1 ATR above the high
ATR multiple1

Exit

Profit target (optional)Middle band

Risk

Risk per trade0.25%
Daily loss limit / kill switchStop after 3 losses in a day

Strengths

  • Uses a clear, objective entry signal based on price closing back inside the band after touching it.
  • Defines risk per trade (0.25%) and a daily loss limit (3 losses), which helps control drawdowns.
  • Combines two timeframes (5m for entry, 15m for trend filter) to avoid fading strong trends.
  • Has a defined stop (1 ATR above the high) and target (middle band), so the trade plan is complete.

Risks

  • Flat 15-minute trend can be subjective or hard to define precisely, leading to inconsistent entries.
  • Fading Bollinger Band moves can fail in choppy markets where price keeps pushing to the band repeatedly, causing quick stops.
  • The target at the middle band may be too close relative to the stop, giving a poor risk-reward ratio if the ATR stop is wide.
  • Three losses in a day stops trading, but a losing streak can still happen over multiple days, and the strategy does not address that.

Source

Typed into JustWavey.

Version history

VersionSavedChanged boxes
12026-10-17First version

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